Since the break of trend-line (shown in the chart) Nifty and BankNifty have headed lower. The government tried stepping in to save the market with it's stimulus package and other things, but in-spite all the efforts the markets were not able recover as wanted. For both, Nifty and BankNifty , we have seen 8 out of 10 red days and the green days had very small green candle bodies. (showing the heavy pessimism in the market). Nifty has been trying to hold above the support region of 9150-9050 but BankNifty has been making lower lows on each swing which does not seem to be a good sign.
The most likely future scenarios are that market will consolidate or start a new fresh break down soon. Considering the global markets are not breaking down as of now, i would be leaning towards a ping-pong consolidating market (but then also keep my eyes on key swap zones and be ready to change my views anytime as i see fit).
Anyhow the banks are not performing well and this is clearly seen by the weakness that we have seen in BankNifty since the fall in February. BankNifty was not even able to retrace back up to 33% fib level and has also started to make lower lows since the breakdown from the trend-line shown in the chart.
Note -
The upside seen from the government package may have been used to deploy fresh shorts and if that is the case, we would have a tough time breaking out from that region. Anyhow, that would become clear in the new few weeks or months to come
Keep a close eye on global indexes like DOW and S&P500 and trade accordingly
Daily RSI
Nifty - 47 - Neutral
BankNifty - 41 - Leaning Neutral
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